## ----cp-knit-opts, include = FALSE--------------------------------------------
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  collapse = TRUE,
  comment = "#>",
  fig.width = 6, fig.height = 4,
  fig.align = "center"
)

## ----setup--------------------------------------------------------------------
library(MetaHunt)
set.seed(1)

## ----cp-simulate--------------------------------------------------------------
# m = 80 is large enough that with cal_frac = 0.5 and alpha = 0.05 the conformal quantile is finite.
m <- 80; G <- 20; K_true <- 3
x <- seq(0, 1, length.out = G)
basis <- rbind(sin(pi * x), cos(pi * x), x)
W <- data.frame(w1 = rnorm(m), w2 = rnorm(m))
beta <- cbind(c(1, -0.8), c(-0.5, 1.2), c(0, 0))
pi_true <- exp(as.matrix(W) %*% beta); pi_true <- pi_true / rowSums(pi_true)
F_hat <- pi_true %*% basis + matrix(rnorm(m * G, sd = 0.05), m, G)

## ----cp-wnew------------------------------------------------------------------
W_new <- data.frame(w1 = c(0, 1, -1), w2 = c(0, -0.5, 1))

## ----cp-split-pointwise-------------------------------------------------------
res_pw <- split_conformal(F_hat, W, W_new, K = K_true, alpha = 0.05,
                          cal_frac = 0.5, seed = 1,
                          dfspa_args = list(denoise = FALSE))
plot(res_pw, target_idx = 1, x_axis = x)

## ----cp-split-scalar----------------------------------------------------------
res_scalar <- split_conformal(F_hat, W, W_new, K = K_true,
                              wrapper = mean, alpha = 0.05,
                              cal_frac = 0.5, seed = 1,
                              dfspa_args = list(denoise = FALSE))
data.frame(prediction = res_scalar$prediction,
           lower      = res_scalar$lower,
           upper      = res_scalar$upper)

## ----cp-cross-----------------------------------------------------------------
res_cross <- cross_conformal(F_hat, W, W_new, K = K_true, n_folds = 4,
                             wrapper = mean, alpha = 0.1, seed = 1,
                             dfspa_args = list(denoise = FALSE))
res_cross

## ----cp-prefit----------------------------------------------------------------
fit <- metahunt(F_hat, W, K = K_true, dfspa_args = list(denoise = FALSE))
pi_hat <- project_to_simplex(F_hat, fit$dfspa_fit$bases)
res_pre <- conformal_from_fit(
  dfspa_fit = fit$dfspa_fit, weight_model = fit$weight_model,
  F_cal = F_hat, W_cal = W, W_new = W_new,
  wrapper = mean, alpha = 0.1
)
res_pre

## ----cp-small-m-warning, warning = TRUE---------------------------------------
m_small <- 30  # too small for alpha = 0.05 with cal_frac = 0.5
F_small <- F_hat[1:m_small, , drop = FALSE]
W_small <- W[1:m_small, , drop = FALSE]
res_inf <- split_conformal(F_small, W_small, W_new, K = K_true,
                           alpha = 0.05, cal_frac = 0.5, seed = 1,
                           dfspa_args = list(denoise = FALSE))
res_inf$quantile        # Inf — quantile is unbounded
range(res_inf$lower)    # -Inf
range(res_inf$upper)    #  Inf