recruitlag: Can Episodic Recruitment be a Delayed Consequence of Continuous Reproduction?

Tests whether an episodic recruitment record can be the delayed consequence of a reproductive record, under any distributed lag. A delay is a convolution, and a convolution is a weighted average, so the concentration in time of expected recruitment can never exceed that of reproduction: reproduction's own concentration is a ceiling. The package computes that ceiling by searching families of lag weights (pure delays, windows, geometric decay and Dirichlet draws), calibrates the pooled comparison against negative-binomial counts to show what it can and cannot refute, and runs the host-level (replicate-unit) test in which the null is the lag hypothesis exactly as it is asserted: expected recruitment on each unit is that unit's own lagged reproduction, scaled to its own total. Uncertainty on the exceedance comes by three routes, a cluster bootstrap over units, a Bayesian bootstrap (Rubin 1981 <doi:10.1214/aos/1176345338>) and a negative-binomial model of the counts fitted with 'Stan' through 'cmdstanr'; recruit_triage() asks whether a first sighting is a recruit or a plant returning from dormancy. Plotting functions draw the ceiling strip, the lag profiles against the observed counts, the calibration and a forest plot of the intervals. The census data on the epiphytic orchid Lepanthes eltoroensis analysed in the companion paper are included.

Version:	0.1.0
Depends:	R (≥ 4.1)
Imports:	ggplot2, rlang, stats, tibble, tools, utils
Suggests:	testthat (≥ 3.0.0), knitr, rmarkdown, dplyr, tidyr, cmdstanr (≥ 0.6.0), posterior
Published:	2026-10-15
DOI:	10.32614/CRAN.package.recruitlag (may not be active yet)
Author:	Raymond L. Tremblay [aut, cre, cph]
Maintainer:	Raymond L. Tremblay <raymond.tremblay at gmail.com>
BugReports:	https://github.com/RaymondLTremblay/recruitlag/issues
License:	MIT + file LICENSE
Copyright:	see file COPYRIGHTS
URL:	https://github.com/RaymondLTremblay/recruitlag
NeedsCompilation:	no
Additional_repositories:	https://stan-dev.r-universe.dev
Language:	en-GB
Citation:	recruitlag citation info
Materials:	NEWS
CRAN checks:	recruitlag results

Documentation:

Reference manual:	recruitlag.html , recruitlag.pdf
Vignettes:	Reading the intervals: confidence, credible, and the four ways to cut one (source, R code) Invented records: where the test has power and where it does not (source, R code) The Lepanthes eltoroensis analysis (source, R code) The mathematics behind the test, and the functions that implement it (source, R code) Introduction to recruitlag: a worked analysis, step by step (source, R code)

Downloads:

Package source:	recruitlag_0.1.0.tar.gz
Windows binaries:	r-devel: not available, r-release: not available, r-oldrel: not available
macOS binaries:	r-release (arm64): recruitlag_0.1.0.tgz, r-oldrel (arm64): recruitlag_0.1.0.tgz, r-release (x86_64): recruitlag_0.1.0.tgz, r-oldrel (x86_64): recruitlag_0.1.0.tgz

Linking:

Please use the canonical form https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=recruitlag to link to this page.